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Nagorno-Karabakh: Two Years After the Ceasefire

Assessing the Current Situation and Future Prospects

Background

Two years have passed since the signing of the ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which brought an end to the six-week Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. The conflict, which had been simmering for decades, erupted into full-scale fighting in September of that year, resulting in thousands of casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

Current Situation

The ceasefire has largely held, with sporadic incidents of violence reported along the front lines. Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly Armenian-populated region within Azerbaijan, remains under the control of Armenian forces. However, the Azerbaijani government has regained control of significant surrounding territories that were previously under Armenian control.

Negotiations and International Involvement

Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have made little progress, with both sides accusing each other of intransigence. The international community, including the United States, Russia, and the European Union, has been actively involved in mediation efforts, but a comprehensive peace agreement has yet to be reached.

Humanitarian Crisis

The war has left a devastating humanitarian impact on the region. Thousands of people remain displaced, and access to basic necessities, such as food, water, and shelter, remains a challenge. The International Committee of the Red Cross has been providing assistance, but more support is urgently needed.

Geopolitical Implications

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has significant geopolitical implications. The region is strategically located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and its status has been a source of tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan for decades. The ongoing conflict has also raised concerns about the potential for wider regional instability and involvement of other powers.

Future Prospects

The future of Nagorno-Karabakh remains uncertain. A lasting peace agreement will require both sides to make compromises and address the underlying causes of the conflict. The international community has a crucial role to play in facilitating negotiations and supporting efforts to rebuild the region.